Sunday, April 16, 2006
Calif.: Repeat of Quake Of 1906 Could Be Even More Deadly
Repeat of Quake Of 1906 Could Be Even More Deadly
Study Simulates Disaster in Bay Area
By William Booth
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, April 17, 2006; A03
Timed to coincide with the 100th anniversary of the catastrophic 1906 San Francisco earthquake this week, researchers have calculated the possible death and destruction that could occur if another temblor of equal strength struck the Bay Area today.
The worst-case scenario? As many as 3,400 dead, mostly crushed by buildings; up to 700,000 people displaced or homeless; 130,000 structures extensively damaged or destroyed; and immediate losses exceeding $125 billion -- a forecast that rivals the mayhem unleashed by Hurricane Katrina and the breaching of the New Orleans levees.
[snip]
Mary Lou Zoback, a senior research scientist with the United States Geological Survey in Menlo Park, Calif., reviewed the study and endorses its forecast. She says what leaps out at her is how vulnerable the urban core of the Bay Area is -- the cities of San Francisco, Berkeley and Oakland -- because so many of the residents live in apartments and houses built before building codes were tightened in 1970. (And because many units are rent-controlled apartments, she says, landlords have few incentives to seismic retrofit.)
Study Simulates Disaster in Bay Area
By William Booth
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, April 17, 2006; A03
Timed to coincide with the 100th anniversary of the catastrophic 1906 San Francisco earthquake this week, researchers have calculated the possible death and destruction that could occur if another temblor of equal strength struck the Bay Area today.
The worst-case scenario? As many as 3,400 dead, mostly crushed by buildings; up to 700,000 people displaced or homeless; 130,000 structures extensively damaged or destroyed; and immediate losses exceeding $125 billion -- a forecast that rivals the mayhem unleashed by Hurricane Katrina and the breaching of the New Orleans levees.
[snip]
Mary Lou Zoback, a senior research scientist with the United States Geological Survey in Menlo Park, Calif., reviewed the study and endorses its forecast. She says what leaps out at her is how vulnerable the urban core of the Bay Area is -- the cities of San Francisco, Berkeley and Oakland -- because so many of the residents live in apartments and houses built before building codes were tightened in 1970. (And because many units are rent-controlled apartments, she says, landlords have few incentives to seismic retrofit.)
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