American Dream

There may be an obesity epidemic, but those who think it is caused by the suburbs need to explain a couple of things. First, why is the U.S. suffering such an epidemic now, decades after we suburbanized? And second, why are countries in Central and South America also suffering such an epidemic now, well before they have suburbanized?

A new report on childhood obesity estimates that a third of the children in both North and South America are obese. Like previous reports, however, this report is more alarmist than realistic. It does not introduce any new data but makes projections that obesity rates will exceed 50 percent by 2010. The people who wrote the report simply looked at historic estimates of obesity rates and made a straight-line projection into the future.

Part of the problem with this is that the historic estimates themselves were alarmist. The obesity industry consists of researchers and activists who get federal funding to deal with obesity, and it is in this industry's interest to claim that rates are increasing. The claims are based on telephone surveys and other flimsy data.

To the extent that there has been an increase in childhood obesity, it is probably due to some one-time social change and so is not a trend that can be projected into the future. I suspect that children simply are not exercising as much as they used to, partly because many elementary and high schools no longer require gym classes and partly because helicopter moms won't let their children out of their sight.