Friday, March 17, 2006
Md., Va. and D.C.: Growth, but not where Smart Growth says it's supposed to go
WTOP Radio: BRAC Predicted to Bring Boom to Md.'s Population
And in the Richmond (Virginia) metropolitan area, the Times-Dispatch reports that Growth shifts; redefines metro area.
Note - all changes discussed below deal with estimated changes in resident population as determined by the U.S. Census Bureau, and are for the period July 1, 2004 to July 1, 2005.
Italic type denotes quotes these stories.
BRAC means Base Realignment and Closure.
(1) Virginia, which has much less Smart Growth in its laws than adjoining Maryland does, has grown much more rapidly (some of this is due to the Commonwealth having a vastly larger land area):
Virginia, which had three of the country's top 10 fastest-growing counties last year, outpaced Maryland with a growth rate of 1.15 percent to Maryland's 0.7 percent. Numerically, Virginia gained more than twice the number of residents as Maryland -- 86,133 to 39,056 -- according to U.S. Census Bureau data.
(2) The counties with the largest percentage gains are not the ones where Smart Growth envisioned that the growth should go (all four of these counties are, by tradition, "rural" counties):
The biggest gainers were Caroline County, 2.4 percent, Cecil County, 2.4 percent, Charles County, 2.3 percent, and Wicomico County, 2.0 percent.
Caroline County - on the Eastern Shore, far from the metropolitan areas of Baltimore, Washington and Annapolis - and any commute from Caroline County to Metropolitan Maryland must cross the Chesapeake Bay Bridge.
Cecil County - in the northeast corner of Maryland, many Interstate miles from Baltimore (though a reasonable commute to many employment opportunities in Delaware).
Charles County - in "Southern" Maryland, south of Prince George's County. Charles is firmly in the orbit of Washington, D.C., and there's plenty of vacant land for development there.
Wicomico County - also on Maryland's Eastern Shore (the county seat is Salisbury), but even further away from Washington and Baltimore than Caroline County.
(3) Now for two of the Maryland counties that have long practiced Smart Growth (even before it was called that):
Maryland's largest counties, Montgomery and Prince George's, have seen slowing population growth for the last two years. Montgomery grew by 5,952 people in 2005 and 5,558 in 2004, after gaining an average of 12,509 the previous three years. Prince George's added 4,481 in 2005 and 6,483 in 2004, after averaging 10,793 from 2001 to 2003.
Now in absolute terms, these two counties were estimated to have enjoyed relatively large populaton gains, but the percentages were small.
See also the Web site of the The Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission (M-NCPPC), which is the land use planning agency and local parks department for most of both counties.
Frederick County, Maryland is not part of M-NCPPC, but it is part of the Washington, D.C. region, and it is estimated to have gained over 3,200 residents.
(4) The story reported by WTOP did not even mention the Maryland county that led all the others in population loss - that would be Baltimore City (which is a county for most purposes - it's not part of any other Maryland county). The Census Bureau estimates that Baltimore City lost more population than any one Maryland county gained.
(5) And while we're at it, let's consider the District of Columbia and Arlington County, Virginia (Arlington is home to the famous (among Smart Growth advocates) Ballston corridor).
D.C. is estimated to have lost over 3,700 in population.
Arlington County is estimated to have lost nearly 2,000 in population.
(6) Other Virginia jurisdictions near D.C.:
City of Alexadria: Lost over 1,000.
County of Fairfax: Added over 4,000 (this is the biggest jurisdiction in the Washington region by population)
City of Fairfax: Almost no change
City of Falls Church: Almost no change
County of Loudoun: Added over 16,000
Prince William County: Added over 12,000
City of Manassas: Almost no change
City of Manassas Park: Small increase
(7) Returning to the Times-Dispatch article mentioned above, a few quotes are interesting and relevant:
The Richmond area was once thought of only in terms of the city, Chesterfield and Henrico. But shifting growth rates have redefined the area to include counties such as Goochland, Powhatan, Hanover, Charles City and New Kent, said John V. Moeser, visiting fellow at the University of Richmond's Center for Civic Engagement.
"Our consciousness is going to have to be considerably broadened," Moeser said. "The growth rates clearly reveal now that the greater Richmond area is encompassing counties that before were viewed as largely agricultural, outside the orbit of metropolitan areas. Not so. They're now within the orbit."
Moeser said there is no question that growth from Washington is creeping southward from Northern Virginia into the Richmond area, despite increasing property values here.
"Compared to Washington, and now even compared to Fredericksburg, we still have a very favorable housing market," Moeser said. "As people escape really high prices to the north of us, they are moving into these areas. But once that happens, that is going to continue to increase property values here in Richmond."
In New Kent [County], the number of building permits issued in the county every month has continued to set records for the past two years, community development director George Homewood said.
Located along Interstate 64, New Kent is convenient for people who commute to the Richmond or the Williamsburg/Hampton Roads metropolitan areas. But the county's attractive, rural features may be an even bigger draw.
(8) You can look up population changes from 2004 to 2005 for your own state or county on the Census Bureau's web site here.
And in the Richmond (Virginia) metropolitan area, the Times-Dispatch reports that Growth shifts; redefines metro area.
Note - all changes discussed below deal with estimated changes in resident population as determined by the U.S. Census Bureau, and are for the period July 1, 2004 to July 1, 2005.
Italic type denotes quotes these stories.
BRAC means Base Realignment and Closure.
(1) Virginia, which has much less Smart Growth in its laws than adjoining Maryland does, has grown much more rapidly (some of this is due to the Commonwealth having a vastly larger land area):
Virginia, which had three of the country's top 10 fastest-growing counties last year, outpaced Maryland with a growth rate of 1.15 percent to Maryland's 0.7 percent. Numerically, Virginia gained more than twice the number of residents as Maryland -- 86,133 to 39,056 -- according to U.S. Census Bureau data.
(2) The counties with the largest percentage gains are not the ones where Smart Growth envisioned that the growth should go (all four of these counties are, by tradition, "rural" counties):
The biggest gainers were Caroline County, 2.4 percent, Cecil County, 2.4 percent, Charles County, 2.3 percent, and Wicomico County, 2.0 percent.
Caroline County - on the Eastern Shore, far from the metropolitan areas of Baltimore, Washington and Annapolis - and any commute from Caroline County to Metropolitan Maryland must cross the Chesapeake Bay Bridge.
Cecil County - in the northeast corner of Maryland, many Interstate miles from Baltimore (though a reasonable commute to many employment opportunities in Delaware).
Charles County - in "Southern" Maryland, south of Prince George's County. Charles is firmly in the orbit of Washington, D.C., and there's plenty of vacant land for development there.
Wicomico County - also on Maryland's Eastern Shore (the county seat is Salisbury), but even further away from Washington and Baltimore than Caroline County.
(3) Now for two of the Maryland counties that have long practiced Smart Growth (even before it was called that):
Maryland's largest counties, Montgomery and Prince George's, have seen slowing population growth for the last two years. Montgomery grew by 5,952 people in 2005 and 5,558 in 2004, after gaining an average of 12,509 the previous three years. Prince George's added 4,481 in 2005 and 6,483 in 2004, after averaging 10,793 from 2001 to 2003.
Now in absolute terms, these two counties were estimated to have enjoyed relatively large populaton gains, but the percentages were small.
See also the Web site of the The Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission (M-NCPPC), which is the land use planning agency and local parks department for most of both counties.
Frederick County, Maryland is not part of M-NCPPC, but it is part of the Washington, D.C. region, and it is estimated to have gained over 3,200 residents.
(4) The story reported by WTOP did not even mention the Maryland county that led all the others in population loss - that would be Baltimore City (which is a county for most purposes - it's not part of any other Maryland county). The Census Bureau estimates that Baltimore City lost more population than any one Maryland county gained.
(5) And while we're at it, let's consider the District of Columbia and Arlington County, Virginia (Arlington is home to the famous (among Smart Growth advocates) Ballston corridor).
D.C. is estimated to have lost over 3,700 in population.
Arlington County is estimated to have lost nearly 2,000 in population.
(6) Other Virginia jurisdictions near D.C.:
City of Alexadria: Lost over 1,000.
County of Fairfax: Added over 4,000 (this is the biggest jurisdiction in the Washington region by population)
City of Fairfax: Almost no change
City of Falls Church: Almost no change
County of Loudoun: Added over 16,000
Prince William County: Added over 12,000
City of Manassas: Almost no change
City of Manassas Park: Small increase
(7) Returning to the Times-Dispatch article mentioned above, a few quotes are interesting and relevant:
The Richmond area was once thought of only in terms of the city, Chesterfield and Henrico. But shifting growth rates have redefined the area to include counties such as Goochland, Powhatan, Hanover, Charles City and New Kent, said John V. Moeser, visiting fellow at the University of Richmond's Center for Civic Engagement.
"Our consciousness is going to have to be considerably broadened," Moeser said. "The growth rates clearly reveal now that the greater Richmond area is encompassing counties that before were viewed as largely agricultural, outside the orbit of metropolitan areas. Not so. They're now within the orbit."
Moeser said there is no question that growth from Washington is creeping southward from Northern Virginia into the Richmond area, despite increasing property values here.
"Compared to Washington, and now even compared to Fredericksburg, we still have a very favorable housing market," Moeser said. "As people escape really high prices to the north of us, they are moving into these areas. But once that happens, that is going to continue to increase property values here in Richmond."
In New Kent [County], the number of building permits issued in the county every month has continued to set records for the past two years, community development director George Homewood said.
Located along Interstate 64, New Kent is convenient for people who commute to the Richmond or the Williamsburg/Hampton Roads metropolitan areas. But the county's attractive, rural features may be an even bigger draw.
(8) You can look up population changes from 2004 to 2005 for your own state or county on the Census Bureau's web site here.
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