American Dream

Hallowed Ground survey veers from ideal poll standards

By Cheryl K. Chumley
07/05/2005

Quotes:

A new poll from the nationally recognized Mason-Dixon research and survey group finds the majority of residents from 11 counties cite growth as a top concern.

"The overwhelming majority of people like looking at farms ... more than strip malls," said Larry Harris, a principal with the Mason-Dixon Polling and Research firm that conducted the 2005 voter survey. "Is this any surprise or shock to anybody?"

That may be -- but of importance to any survey is how the results stand the test of analysis, how accurate the methodology proves.
And according to standards published by the National Council on Public Polls, several questions arise when examining the 2005 Journey Through Hallowed Ground voter survey.

Background and both sides

The Journey Through Hallowed Ground Initiative is an effort that began in 1996, a self-described "public-private partnership to raise national awareness of the heritage and cultural resources ... from Gettysburg, Penn., to Monticello, Va." The estimated 175-mile route follows the path of Old Carolina Road, also known as Route 15/20/231, JTHG Internet postings report.

Cate Magennis Wyatt, JTHG executive director, puts it another way.

"This is all about a business-oriented approach," tying tourism and agricultural production with growth, transportation and preservation issues, she said of the Initiative. "It's all about economic development."

The JTHG Initiative partners seek to educate the public about this historical significance and in so doing, gain support for designation of certain corridor lands as federal Heritage Areas or Scenic Byways, as well as gain opportunity to help with certain Transportation Department plans for Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania, according to its Internet site.

The Initiative members also hope to bring to fruition a Real Estate Investment Trust program that, once funded, would provide the necessary money to buy lands along the corridor to place in easement status, Magennis Wyatt said.

But, she added, it's a misconception to characterize the Initiative as did John Taylor, president of the Virginia Institute of Public Policy.

"Is that the Initiative that (prohibits) development of that stretch of land from Gettysburg to Monticello?" Taylor asked. He continued, "On one hand, certainly we would like to preserve the heritage and battlefield. I don't think there's anything wrong with that. But I'm not sure that it can't be done privately, instead of using public dollars."

Wyatt said designating lands Scenic Byways opens the door to receipt of federal funds.

"Voters give overwhelming support to Journey Through Hallowed Ground Initiative," reads the headline of a June 2 press release from the JTHG Web site.

But such claims may be overstated in terms of what the poll actually measured, and what margin of error accompanied those measurements.

The Mason-Dixon survey of 900 registered voters from the 11 counties took place from May 20-27.

"A consortium of the (JTHG) coalition paid for the poll," Harris said, adding that certain members of this consortium were also allowed to preview the poll questions before the actual survey was conducted.

According to the National Council on Public Polls, the source of financing for any poll should be of consideration when determining the accuracy of results. And about "special interest" groups, NCPP says this:

"Reporting on a survey by a special interest group is tricky," the organization reports on its Internet site. "For example, an environmental group trumpets a poll saying the American people support strong measures to protect the environment. That may be true, but the poll was conducted for a group with definite views. That may have swayed the question wording, the timing of the poll, the group interviewed and the order of the questions."

Moreover, margins of error become statistically insignificant when they reach into the double digits.

The margin of error for this JTHG poll was plus or minus 3 percentage points, Harris said, which means "there is a 95 percent probability that the true figure would fall within that range if all registered voters within the corridor were interviewed."

The numbers of respondents from each county polled varied, however, in proportion to population figures.

For instance, 27 percent of the 900 participants came from Prince William County; 19 percent from Loudoun County; and 18 percent from Frederick County, Md. Only 5 percent of the 900 respondents were from Fauquier County -- a total of 45 people, Harris explained.

These 45 participants do not give an accurate picture of how Fauquier County residents feel about the poll objectives, because the margin of error from this sampling is 14 percent, Harris said.

As such, JTHG participant Piedmont Environmental Council paid for a separate survey specific to Fauquier County residents. This poll, using the same questions as the initial survey, elicited response from 300 Fauquier County registered voters.

Surprising, too, given the 5.8 percent margin of error for the 300 over-samples taken in Fauquier County, and the even larger 14 percent margin of error for Fauquier County statistics in the initial 900-respondent poll, are how Piedmont Environmental Council and the JTHG summarize the Mason-Dixon findings.

This is a "press release regarding a recent Mason-Dixon poll of Fauquier County residents and their overwhelming concerns related to the impact of growth in their community," Robert Lazaro, director of communications for PEC wrote, in a June 13 e-mail.

And of the JTHG press release presented as "overwhelming support (for) Journey Through Hallowed Ground Initiative," Magennis Wyatt called concerns about any overstatement of fact "semantics."

In the Mason-Dixon survey, the questions first centered on determining quality-of-life concerns of the respondents. They were then asked to rate their level of awareness of the JTHG Initiative; 96 percent were not familiar with the plan.

Following, participants were read a two-paragraph description of the corridor's historical benefits and asked to rate how important these assets were to quality of life.

Participants were then cited more historical benefits of the 175-mile region, asked to rate each benefit in terms of importance to quality of life, and offered Census Bureau statistics indicating the population growth of the region.

After gauging respondents' levels of concern about this explosive growth and its negative impact on quality of life, poll questions focused on explaining how the JTHG Initiative, "in response to the pressure and threats posed by this rapid development," would "promote balanced approaches to development that will protect the quality of life of the corridor's residents."

The respondents were then asked if they supported or opposed the JTHG Initiative.

According to the survey, 46 percent then strongly supported the Initiative, 35 percent somewhat supported, 4 percent somewhat opposed, 3 percent strongly opposed and 12 percent were undecided.

Of interest to note, too, is question number two of the survey, which asked, "Overall, how would you rate the quality of life in your county? Excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor."

Of 900 respondents, and with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percentage points, 38 percent answered "excellent" and 52 percent answered "good."

E-mail the reporter: cchumley@timespapers.com

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